Where is US Higher Education Headed in an Age of Polycrisis
As I prepare The Zeleza Higher Education Digest for April 2026, two essays from Times Higher Education caught my attention as an educator long based in the US academy. They broadly ask the same question: where is US higher education headed, and a supplementary one, how do current trajectories compare with developments elsewhere?
Patrick Jack’s “‘Past its Peak’ US higher education system faces ‘polycrisis’” reports futurist Bryan Alexander’s argument that the sector reached its high point around 2012 and now faces a tightening polycrisis shaped by demographic decline, souring public attitudes, partisan hostility, escalating costs, climate disruption, fragile business models, declining international enrolment and the uncertain effects of AI. Alexander warns that these pressures could shift the system from “college for all” to “college for some,” reducing universities’ influence on issues such as climate change and social justice. He also notes signs of resilience including community college enrollment rebounds, online learning growth and democratic redesign efforts, even as cuts, mergers and closures continue.
Jack’s companion piece, Loss of US dominance in education ‘mirrors car industry decline’”, draws on a UC Berkeley analysis arguing that the US model of high tuition, rising costs and dependence on a narrow set of international markets has become increasingly unsustainable. The authors compare the moment to earlier declines in steel and automotive manufacturing, where the US was once dominant but overseas competitors innovated more rapidly. Europe has emerged as a viable alternative higher education business model, combining lower costs, diversified demand, deliberate internationalisation and reputational insulation across multiple national systems. Co-author David Audretsch notes that European universities face their own demographic pressures and must diversify funding beyond government support.
The essays portray a US system at a critical juncture, increasingly constrained by structural fragilities while Europe strengthens its position as a competitive global destination, although the region faces its own structural challenges. Asia is even moving faster, and Africa is on a growth trajectory.
This moment underscores the need for US institutions to rethink internal governance by moving toward what Daniel J. Hemel and David J. Posen describe in their extensive essay posted yesterday as “university democracy” grounded in “stakeholder governance.” The American model, which they trace brilliantly, that emerged out of historical contingencies, rather than institutional logic, vests power in boards often composed of political appointees or corporate executives in public and private institutions, respectively, leaving institutions in the hands of actors who are frequently uninformed about academic life and largely unaccountable to those most invested in the mission of the university—faculty, students and staff. A more democratic governance structure, they contend, would better equip institutions to withstand the structural and political ‘barbarians at the gates.’